Future Precipitation Scenarios over Italy

To support the development of national adaptation policies and measures addressing climate change impacts over Italy, this work aims to analyze projected changes in mean temperatures precipitations, extreme events such as droughts floods, highlighting some local trends different Italian regions that have been little considered date. The investigations are made on basis a set high-resolution Euro-CORDEX models (horizontal resolution 0.11°, about 12 km) infer quantitative assessments danger under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): business usual scenario, i.e., without reduction green-house gas emissions (RCP 8.5), medium stabilization scenario 4.5) mitigation 2.6). After filtering with limited performances reconstructing current climate, multi-model scenarios were characterized by comparing ensemble values computed for base-line period (1971–2000) those elaborated short- (2021–2050), medium- (2041–2070) long-term (2071–2100). Two WMO ETCCDI indices investigate extremes: Consecutive Dry Days precipitations. Despite uncertainties (related discrepancies among models), drought conditions precipitations will likely exacerbate coming decades 8.5). Such be less critical if partial actions undertaken expected significantly reduced decarbonization